Global Warming to India's Rescue - Part II

(contd.)

So how do we simulate an environment for engineers to innovate? How do we kickstart the companies into trying to innovate? The answer is as simple as it is straightforward: Remove the Petrol Subsidies and add a Petrol Tax.

It is a bold thing to say. But to give you a proper framework into just the magnitude of the things that we are dealing with, here’s our annual oil import bill:

$ 50 Billion – a year (Rs. 2.5 lakh crores – a year!)

We spend the above amount EVERY YEAR trying to buy enough petrol for our nation. Just how much money is $ 50 Billion one may ask? To give you an account of just what it means, here’s a list of some of the things we can build/buy if we save that money (Note- we can pursue any one of these projects)

•      162 IIT’s  - a year!

•      291 AIIMS - a year!

•      24 lakh primary schools - a year!

•      16 Delhi Metro like projects - a year!

•      Double our Defence budget, double our Health Budget, send 10 Chandrayaan’s to moon and still have money left to construct 3 Olympic sized stadiums.

I find the last fact particularly startling. We can double our defence budget, double our health budget with the snap of a finger and still have money left to do other things!

And therefore, as the cliché goes, we must act as tough citizens and send a message across to our MPs, “that you can take tough decisions, we will support you.”

Already the government was in two minds regarding the roll back of the petrol prices. If your government cannot even stand by its decision to increase the price of petrol by a rupee or two, then you can be sure the option of complete removal of petrol subsidies is something your government does not even know exists.

But it is easier said than done. Because any MP who gets up in Parliament and proposes such a measure will be drowned by the opposition voices saying, “You want to raise the petrol prices and add a petrol tax! Are you out of your mind? As it is the Indian people are burdened with too many taxes and now you want to add another one. Once the price of petrol goes up, the cost of transportation goes up and once the cost of transportation goes up the price of everything goes up – including essential commodities. No, no we cannot have this tax.”

And there is only one answer to that. You say, “You know what friend, let’s get one thing straight. As far as taxes are concerned we are both on the same side. We are both paying taxes. While I am paying taxes to the Indian government, you are paying taxes to the Saudi Arabian government so that they can build more of their palaces. And  I have just this inclination – that I want my taxes to go into building more Indian schools, Indian hospitals, Indian roads and Indian bridges.”

If that argument does not win, nothing will. To understand the above point all you have to do is look at the spectacular growth of the Arab countries. Where do you think they got all that money from?

Ultimately, I am reminded of that famous saying, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” We know the price of petrol will go up in the future whether we like it or not. We also know that India will be among the hardest hit countries by Global Warming. Why not make the most of it?

The Dragon's in the Forest

Anyone who still thinks India’s main rival is Pakistan has not entered the 21st century.

Back in the older days, I remember we would be filled with pride upon reading flattering statistics such as the number of soldiers in the Indian Army vis-a-vis the Pakistani Army. But something changed since then. Pakistan stagnated, India inched ahead while China simply pressed the fast forward button.

It was not long ago that India’s defence was superior to China’s. Now even such a thought is considered laughable. This article will make the case that India’s real competition will now come from China and not Pakistan.

In 1947, India and Pakistan were partitioned amidst much civil upheaval and riots. As is normal after any break up, feelings of jealousy and competitiveness arose. The two countries (Pakistan more so than India) made each other the centre of their development goals. So money began pumping in in trying to outdo each other. But while we were still infatuated with our Western neighbour, something was taking place quite discreetly on our eastern borders. A nation was busy reviving itself and clocking massive double digit growth. Having neglected that amidst the heavy illusion of false pride with respect to Pakistan, the result is that today, India is an ENTIRE generation behind China.

Today, China is building infrastructure that is surpassing America’s. Already the world’s fastest train has come up, covering the distance between Beijing and Shanghai in 2 hours 45 minutes (compared to which India’s fastest train the New Delhi-Bhopal Shatabdi express would take about 7 hours 10 minutes in covering the same distance!) A friend of mine, who has recently come from China, summed up the attitude differences very nicely, saying “In India we like to make comparisons with China, In China they like to make comparisons with America”

And this is the scary part. That China is not even bothered about us, taking us to be no more than a regional itch in the back. A mention of India is still hyphenated with Pakistan.

So what should India really be doing? My view is that we must stick to our democratic principles while finding a way out. Because we cannot and should not become a dictatorship, to take on China, we need to summon all our energy and determination to kick-start the democratic engine so that it delivers promptly and properly rather than laggardly and lethargically as is the case now. For that the government must be capable of taking tough decisions. Already the government was in two minds about the rollback of petrol prices. If the govt. is not even strong enough to stand by its own decisions then competing with the headstrong leadership of the Communist Party of China can remain a pipe-dream.

China’s decision making prowess is something that takes even the Americans by awe. But this does not directly imply that a democracy cannot function at high levels of efficiency. Case in point: America’s response to the launch of Sputnik by the erstwhile Soviet Union. That lesson of history, more than anything else shows that if democratic countries can pull up their socks and work in a single direction, they too can become unbeatable.

In the end I am reminded of a quote from Gurcharan Das that I hope will be the guiding light in our attitude towards our neighbours, “If Pakistan pulls us down into an abyss of terrorism and identity politics, China will lift us up, I think, firing our ambition for better roads, schools and health centres” The best example that describes India’s state versus that of China is the endless ruckus over our preparations for the Commonwealth Games and the smooth steamrolling by China at putting up Beijing 2008.

If Sardar Vallabbhai Patel were alive today, he’d be quick to comment, “Well folks the dragon has entered the forest and it’s about time the tiger got prepared.”

Prime Minister Gandhi?

There is no doubt that anytime from now a new a Congress or Congress led government is formed, Rahul Gandhi will become India’s Prime Minister. It is inevitable some say.

Well it may be inevitable but is it desirable? More specifically, do good intentions translate into good governance?

Let’s examine.

Good intentions are necessary for good governance. But they are not enough by themselves. They have to be supplemented by foresight and effective man management followed by proper and prompt enforcement of the original ideas. As far as Rahul Gandhi is concerned, he may or may not have these qualities. We do not know – yet.

Rahul Gandhi is the dream candidate for the middle class. Educated, English savvy and handsome, he is just the man they would want to see representing India at the high table. But none of this means he will make a good PM. What it does mean is that India will have a...well... Educated, English savvy and handsome PM. That’s it.

One thing that does not work in Rahul Gandhi’s favour is that he has no experience of being in the government (although this does not automatically imply he does not know how governments are run.) He has been consistently (and cleverly?) avoiding any responsibility at the centre, opting instead to work for the party to strengthen its base at the ground level. This has been a move that has paid rich dividends. Not only has he managed to avoid taking any wrong action (how can he when he is not in the govt) thus keeping his credentials for a future PM post intact, but he has also reinvigorated the party workers.

In addition to all this, he has emerged, through what the opposition calls ‘Poverty Tourism’, as a messiah of the poor, thus earning himself the title of ‘Rahul Baba’ among the Dalits – a move that has definitely angered Mayawati. To his credit, he has resurrected his party in UP, and has matured as a statesman.

One can remember the time he made the ill-advised comment stating “that the 1971 break up of Pakistan was among his family's ‘achievements.’” Not only did this invite criticism from several Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi parties (noted historian Irfan Habib remarked that the comments were "..an insult to the Bangladesh movement.") but this gravely undermined India’s moral authority. Such comments are less forthcoming from Rahul Gandhi these days.

Another problem that arises, hypothetically, is how the likes of P. Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Kamal Nath, Pranab Mukherjee, etc who are so senior to him, will work under him? Or to see it this way: If you are Rahul Gandhi and you see that P. Chindambaram is not doing a proper job as Home Minister, how do you fire him?

But no one can write off Rahul Gandhi. Why? Because the last time someone wrote off a person for not having PM credentials, the person went on to create history. The person in question went on to become only the second prime minister after Nehru to get reinstated after completing a full term in office. He is perhaps the best example of a person who has turned out to be a successful Prime Minister despite no obvious previous record of effective leadership.

Ultimately how good a Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi turns out will largely depend on how he addresses four major challenges for India in the coming decade. On the external front, he will have to deal with an imploding Pakistan and an increasingly aggressive China. Andt at home he will have the enormous task of facing the Naxal challenge and of creating Inclusive growth as India prospers. While the first two issues may not be interlinked, the latter two definitely are. And the sooner he realizes this, the greater his chances become of being a successful Prime Minister.

An interesting fact is that if Rahul Gandhi’s surname was not Gandhi, he would not even be considered for the PM’s post with the current skillset that he has.

Another interesting fact is that no one from the Gandhi family has turned out to be a poor Prime Minister be it Indira, Rajiv or even Pandit Nehru.

So will Rahul Gandhi be any different? Quite frankly, I do not know. Only time will tell. Watch out for this space in 2019!